Ranking the top 50 players in the Olympic hockey tournament - ESPN
Neil PaineJan 21, 2026, 07:00 AM ET
Close
Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
The 2026 Winter Olympics (https://www.espn.com/olympics/) are a celebration of international hockey at its peak again. For the first time since 2014, NHL players will be participating in the event next month in Milan, Italy -- and for most of the players headed to the Games, that means they'll be making their Olympic debuts as well. The tournament's two weeks will be a career highlight for everyone involved.
And with the league's top stars returning to the Olympic stage, what better way to judge which players might be the biggest difference-makers in Milan Cortina than to rank them off of their recent production in the NHL?
That's where adjusted Goals Above Replacement (https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2025-26-nhl-team-elo-power-rankings?open=false#%C2%A72025-26-nhl-goals-above-replacement-leaderboard) (GAR) comes in, my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats such as Tom Awad's Goals Versus Threshold (https://web.archive.org/web/20171024045935/https://www.diebytheblade.com/2012/12/7/3411686/sab-re-metrics-what-is-gvt) and Hockey-Reference's Point Shares (https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/point_shares.html) . The core idea of GAR is to measure a player's total impact -- in offense, defense or goaltending -- above what a generic 'replacement-level' player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league's value is better balanced by position (https://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/bias-in-hockey-reference-point-shares) , reflecting how top hockey talent actually gets paid: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders. Then, the adjusted part prorates every player's production to an 82-game schedule.
Finally, to turn that into a measure of who has been the most productive in recent NHL seasons, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James' concept of an 'Established Level' of performance (https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Favorite_toy) ; in this case, a weighted average of each player's GAR over the past three regular seasons. Specifically, we assign a weight of 3 to 2025-26, 2 to 2024-25 and 1 to 2023-24, then divide by 6 to get each player's overall average.
To keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: No player's Established Level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season's GAR. And in a special modification to make sure inactive and/or injured players -- such as Matthew Tkachuk (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/4024854/matthew-tkachuk) -- don't take too much of a value hit, I also applied the same 75% rule to last season's output if a player logged too few games (fewer than 12 for skaters or seven for goalies) in 2025-26 to date.
The result is a blend of peak, recent and sustained performance, which tells us who has been the most productive for their NHL teams recently -- and perhaps who will carry that over to their national teams as well. With that in mind, here are the top 50 NHL skaters and goaltenders participating in the Olympics, according to their three-year Established Level of recent value:
Note: All stats are as of Jan. 17.
- Nathan MacKinnon (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/3041969/nathan-mackinnon) , C, Canada (COL)
GAR: 2025-26: 39.0 | 2024-25: 24.2 | 2023-24: 31.0
Three-year avg.: O: 26.1 | D: 6.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 32.7
MacKinnon has been on a real tear since the holiday break, averaging 2.1 points per game over his past 10 games, adding to his lead over Connor McDavid (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/3895074/connor-mcdavid) on the GAR leaderboard (https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2025-26-nhl-team-elo-power-rankings?open=false#%C2%A72025-26-nhl-goals-above-replacement-leaderboard) . That's a place he has occupied before -- back when he won MVP in 2023-24 -- and it's not hard to build a case for the Avs' star as the best player in the world ahead of the Olympics.
Of course, that might not translate to a spot as C1 in the Canadian lineup, but given the rapport he built centering a line with Sidney Crosby (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player//id/3114/sidney-crosby) and Sam Reinhart (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player//id/3114722/sam-reinhart) at the 4 Nations Face-Off (MacKinnon led all tournament goal scorers with four in four games), there probably won't be many complaints coming from MacKinnon in Milan Cortina, either.
- Cale Makar (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/4233563/cale-makar) , D, Canada (COL)
GAR: 2025-26: 27.7 | 2024-25: 30.1 | 2023-24: 22.9
Three-year avg.: O: 19.8 | D: 7.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 27.7
Joining MacKinnon on Team Canada to continue one of the game's greatest-ever forward-defenseman combos (https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/the-colorado-avalanches-star-power) into the Olympics, Makar ranks so highly here because of his reliably elite production. He's currently tracking to set a new career high in adjusted points -- with 93, the second highest by a defenseman (https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/hockey/player-season-finder.cgi?request=1&orderby=pointsadjusted&pos=D&draftpicktype=overall) since Paul Coffey in 1994-95 -- for the third consecutive season, and he continues to log nearly 25 minutes per game on the blue line for a Colorado team that ranks sixth (https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php?fromseason=20252026&thruseason=20252026&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=y&team=all&loc=B&gpf=410&fd=&td=) in fewest expected goals allowed per 60 minutes.
No defenseman has come close to consistently challenging Makar's performance in recent years.
- Connor McDavid (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/3895074/connor-mcdavid) , C, Canada (EDM)
GAR: 2025-26: 31.2 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 27.4
Three-year avg.: O: 22.3 | D: 4.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.9
McDavid would be neck-and-neck with MacKinnon for No. 1 if he hadn't missed 15 games last season, leading to a 'down' season by his standards. Of course, a down season for McDavid still meant hitting the century mark in adjusted points for a ninth straight season and ranking 14th in the league in GAR. We should all hope our 'down years' are so good!
This season, McDavid is back to the business of dominating, tracking for his most adjusted goals, points and GAR since winning MVP -- and notching his first 50-goal season (https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/50-for-mcdavid-was-an-overdue-testament?utm_source=publication-search) -- in 2022-23. The fact that Canada has each of the three most productive NHL players at the Olympics speaks to the incredible talent it is sending to Italy next month.
- Leon Draisaitl (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/3114727/leon-draisaitl) , C, Germany (EDM)
GAR: 2025-26: 25.2 | 2024-25: 27.1 | 2023-24: 23.3
Three-year avg.: O: 20.5 | D: 5.1 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.5
If we're going to hail Makar for his consistency from the blue line, we have to extend the same praise to Draisaitl, whose metronomic ability to produce a new version of the same great season year after year is nothing short of astounding.
He's had between 41 and 53 adjusted goals and between 104 and 128 adjusted points every single season from 2018-19 through 2025-26 -- a level of output by which you can set your watch. Now making his first Olympic appearance, Draisaitl will anchor Germany's scoring attack as they try to approach their silver medal heights of 2018.
- David Pastrnak (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/3114778/david-pastrnak) , RW, Czechia (BOS)
GAR: 2025-26: 18.2 | 2024-25: 22.2 | 2023-24: 24.9
Three-year avg.: O: 18.3 | D: 2.4 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.7
Over the past three seasons, only Nikita Kucherov (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player//id/2563060/nikita-kucherov) , McDavid, MacKinnon and Draisaitl have averaged more points per game (https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/hockey/player-season-finder.cgi?request=1&match=playerseasoncombined&orderby=pointspergame&year_min=2024&pos=F) than Pastrnak, the Bruins' offensive engine. While he hasn't been quite as prolific as usual so far this season -- his 96 adjusted points would be the fewest he has posted in a season since 2021-22, and he ranks just 32nd in adjusted GAR -- Pastrnak gets boosted here by top-10 GAR showings in each of the previous two seasons.
With Kucherov not participating in the Olympics due to Russia's IIHF ban (https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/43690217/iihf-extends-ban-russia-belarus-2025-26-season) , it's probably fair to call Pastrnak the most dangerous offensive winger in this year's Games.
- Connor Hellebuyck (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/3020225/connor-hellebuyck) , G, United States (WPG)
GAR: 2025-26: 10.8 | 2024-25: 31.1 | 2023-24: 28.1
Three-year avg.: O: 0.0 | D: 0.0 | G: 20.5 | Total: 20.5
It's been a rough season at the NHL level for Hellebuyck, who missed a month with a knee injury -- then has struggled (.887 SV%) since returning -- and whose Jets are in the midst of suffering one of the worst year-over-year declines in NHL history, with just a 28% chance to make the playoffs (https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2025-26-nhl-team-elo-power-rankings?open=false#%C2%A72025-26-nhl-elo-ratings-and-win-projections) a year after winning the Presidents' Trophy.
Having said all that, though, few netminders in the game can compete with Hellebuyck's overall résumé, which included an MVP win and the league's top GAR finish last season, and that track record still lifts him up here.
- Zach Werenski (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/3899972/zach-werenski) , D, United States (CBJ)
GAR: 2025-26: 23.2 | 2024-25: 20.5 | 2023-24: 10.4
Three-year avg.: O: 16.9 | D: 3.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.2
Though he didn't score a single goal in the tournament, the points leader at last year's 4 Nations Face-Off was none other than Werenski, one of the standard-bearers for the modern golden age of defensemen (https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/were-living-in-the-golden-age-of?utm_source=publication-search) .
Werenski made a huge statistical leap last season -- improving upon his career high for adjusted points by 50% -- and he has continued to improve his individual production this season to near-Makar levels of offensive output, something he'll potentially bring to a USA D-pairing with his more defensively oriented former teammate Seth Jones (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/3041992/seth-jones) .
- Martin Necas (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/4233586/martin-necas) , C, Czechia (COL)
GAR: 2025-26: 25.7 | 2024-25: 16.8 | 2023-24: 9.9
Three-year avg.: O: 14.9 | D: 5.2 | G: 0.0 | Total: 20.1
The Avs' big 3 of MacKinnon, Makar and Necas has been historically productive together (https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/the-colorado-avalanches-star-power) this season -- now they'll all be at the Olympics together, though not all on the same side.
With his teammates playing for Canada, Necas will slot into the Czech lineup with Pastrnak, Tomas Hertl (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/2976844/tomas-hertl) and more NHL talent, and they'll have a good chance to not only improve upon their ninth-place finish last Olympics, but also perhaps match (or better) their trip to the bronze medal game in 2018. Necas is finally getting his due in the midst of a career year in Colorado, so anything he does here will add another chapter to his breakout story.
- Mikko Rantanen (https://www.espn.com/nhl/player/_/id/3899938/mikko-rantanen) , RW, Finland (DAL)
GAR: 2025-26: 20.7 | 2024-25: 18.0 | 2023-24: 21.5
Three-year avg.: O: 16.2 | D: 3.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 19.9
It is a cosmic coincidence that Rantanen is directly next to Necas in the three-year production rankings, as the two will forever be linked by the trade (https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/47
